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The head of the White House will seek to avoid any missteps in this intervention, much as 50,000 U.S. troops remain in Iraq , ostensibly to train and advise the national army.
At two months of the midterm elections looming uncertainty , Americans are in any case more concerned about the economic situation and employment – the unemployment rate stood at 9.5 % – than in Iraq .
“Clearly , most Americans are concerned primarily the economic situation , ” said Julian Zelizer , professor of history at Princeton University .
For Merle Black, professor of political science at Emory University in Atlanta, it is also clear that the outcome of the November 2 election to Congress and state governors depend primarily ” economic issues , employment and public spending .
And for those who put their priorities in foreign policy , Afghanistan , with the surge in recent months and the intensification of insurgent attacks, has taken over from Iraq, where an Obama administration may boast of having kept his promises and perhaps hope ultimately easing .
PRUDENCE AND UNCERTAINTY
The announcement of the end of combat operations in Iraq , “said Stephanie Sanok , of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS ) in Washington , “is politically useful because things are not going well in Afghanistan. ”
“The goal in this season, is to bring good news (…) while ‘ forgetting ‘ the fact that the Bush administration had negotiated with the Iraqis this process of withdrawal. ”
” I think in the next two months , the attacks will continue in Iraq (…) and that terrorists and insurgents want to test the capabilities of government , ” she adds .
In his speech Tuesday , a cautious Barack Obama should emphasize that he kept his campaign promises without victory.
“The idea of a withdrawal , but withdrawal for now , may leave many Americans skeptical of whatever kind , “said Julian Zelizer .
“Obama must be very , very , very careful , “agreed Lawrence Korb, an expert at the Center for American Progress in Washington. ” Especially if it withdrew troops from Iraq , he has sent to Afghanistan . ”
While the elections date back to March 7 , Iraqi political parties are still unable to form a new coalition government , an uncertainty which has prompted insurgents to step up attacks , particularly against the security forces. Just last Wednesday , the attacks were 62 dead and 250 wounded across the country.
If the situation becomes uncontrollable for the Iraqi authorities and that they are requesting the assistance of the United States , said Stephanie Sanok , ” the U.S. military will agree to come back and help Iraqis in any way whatsoever ” .
” But I think in American political circles there is less willing to spend much money in such an undertaking if the Iraqis do not want to play their full part . “